‘Declaration of War’
Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, chair of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), reacts while addressing ECOWAS heads of state in Abuja, Nigeria, on July 30.Kola Sulaimon/AFP via Getty Images
The prospect of an all-out regional conflict in the Sahel grew late Monday when both Mali and Burkina Faso announced that any move by a foreign power to directly undermine Niger’s ongoing coup would be deemed a “declaration of war” against their own countries.
Their vow appears to be directed largely at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which promised on Sunday to take “all measures necessary” to reinstate ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum if he is not back in power by the end of the week. Already, the bloc has imposed sanctions on Niger—suspending all transactions between the coup-struck nation and ECOWAS member states—as well as frozen all Nigerien assets in regional central banks.
If both sides keep their word, then the Sahel may be facing war. The probability of ECOWAS using force in the West African state is unlikely, argued Rida Lyammouri, a senior fellow at the Policy Center for the New South, a Moroccan think tank. However, “the consequences on civilians of such an approach if putschists chose confrontation would be catastrophic,” he said.
It’s unsurprising that the two countries to back the coup are both junta-led states themselves. In August 2020, Col. Assimi Goïta led the Malian army in a coup against then-President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta. Nine months later, Goïta further asserted his power in a second overthrow, this time naming himself leader. The junta has since delayed Mali’s constitutional referendum, which would vote on significantly reducing the parliament’s powers, until 2024—thereby cementing Goïta’s authority for another year. Burkina Faso has also faced internal turmoil. In January 2022, the Burkinabe army, led by Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, dissolved the parliament, government, and Burkina Faso’s constitution. Then, a few months later, Capt. Ibrahim Traoré ousted Damiba.
All three nations—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—have been battling insurgencies by Islamist extremist groups that former colonizer France along with the United States have tried and failed to eradicate. Poverty and high costs of living also plague the West African states. The Russian paramilitary Wagner Group, which led its own failed coup against the Kremlin on June 23, has taken advantage of these states’ instability by heavily investing and deploying troops in the region, though the White House said on Tuesday that it did not believe Russia was involved in the Niger coup.
Meanwhile, Paris announced on Tuesday that it would begin immediate evacuations of French citizens and other Europeans from Niger. Italy quickly followed suit. The move comes after the French Embassy in Niger’s capital of Niamey was attacked on Sunday following France’s decision to suspend all aid to the West African state on Saturday. The White House said the United States has not changed its decision on maintaining a U.S. military presence in the country, where some 1,000 U.S. troops remain stationed but are restricted to the U.S. military base in Agadez, in central Niger.